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The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower, by Robert Baer
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Over the past thirty years, while the United States has turned either a blind or dismissive eye, Iran has emerged as a nation every bit as capable of altering America’s destiny as traditional superpowers Russia and China. Indeed, one of this book’s central arguments is that, in some ways, Iran’s grip on America’s future is even tighter.
As ex–CIA operative Robert Baer masterfully shows, Iran has maneuvered itself into the elite superpower ranks by exploiting Americans’ false perceptions of what Iran is—by letting us believe it is a country run by scowling religious fanatics, too preoccupied with theocratic jostling and terrorist agendas to strengthen its political and economic foundations.
The reality is much more frightening—and yet contained in the potential catastrophe is an implicit political response that, if we’re bold enough to adopt it, could avert disaster.
Baer’s on-the-ground sleuthing and interviews with key Middle East players—everyone from an Iranian ayatollah to the king of Bahrain to the head of Israel’s internal security—paint a picture of the centuries-old Shia nation that is starkly the opposite of the one normally drawn. For example, Iran’s hate-spouting President Ahmadinejad is by no means the true spokesman for Iranian foreign policy, nor is Iran making it the highest priority to become a nuclear player.
Even so, Baer has discovered that Iran is currently engaged in a soft takeover of the Middle East, that the proxy method of war-making and co-option it perfected with Hezbollah in Lebanon is being exported throughout the region, that Iran now controls a significant portion of Iraq, that it is extending its influence over Jordan and Egypt, that the Arab Emirates and other Gulf States are being pulled into its sphere, and that it will shortly have a firm hold on the world’s oil spigot.
By mixing anecdotes with information gleaned from clandestine sources, Baer superbly demonstrates that Iran, far from being a wild-eyed rogue state, is a rational actor—one skilled in the game of nations and so effective at thwarting perceived Western colonialism that even rival Sunnis relish fighting under its banner.
For U.S. policy makers, the choices have narrowed: either cede the world’s most important energy corridors to a nation that can match us militarily with its asymmetric capabilities (which include the use of suicide bombers)—or deal with the devil we know. We might just find that in allying with Iran, we’ll have increased not just our own security but that of all Middle East nations.The alternative—to continue goading Iran into establishing hegemony over the Muslim world—is too chilling to contemplate.
From the Hardcover edition.
- Sales Rank: #315797 in eBooks
- Published on: 2008-09-23
- Released on: 2008-09-30
- Format: Kindle eBook
From Publishers Weekly
Former CIA operative Baer (See No Evil) challenges the conventional wisdom regarding Iran in this timely and provocative analysis, arguing that Iran has already half-won its undeclared 30-year war with the United States and is rapidly becoming a superpower. In Baer's analysis, Iran has succeeded by using carefully vetted proxies such as Hezbollah and by appealing across the Muslim sectarian divide to Sunni Arabs, and is well on its way to establishing an empire in the Persian Gulf. Baer claims that since Iran's dominance in the Middle East is a fait accompli, the United States has no viable choice but to ask for a truce and enter into negotiations prepared to drop sanctions against Iran and accept a partition of Iraq, which is already, and irretrievably, lost. Baer's assumptions are often questionable—most tellingly that Iran is now trustworthy—and his conclusions premature: he states unequivocally, for example, that the Iranians have annexed the entire south [of Iraq]. But his brief adds an important perspective to a crucial international debate.
Copyright � Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Review
“A masterpiece…Baer's brilliant analysis of Sunni versus Shia, Arab versus Iranian, and Christian versus Muslim is shocking, revealing, and provocative. �Baer lifts the veil of Western media hype and challenges the simplistic solutions offered by ‘experts’ whose�vision is blurred�by�the past. Through his knowledge, long-term experience, and ability to�assess the changing landscape�of this�vital region, he not only shatters the foundations of conventional�thinking, but also offers a practicable blueprint for turning things around.”
—John Perkins, author of the New York Times bestseller Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
“The most important and original book on the Middle East to appear in many years. Baer’s subject is the growing power of Iran; his goal is ending the pattern of American failure; his message is that we’ve been backing the wrong horse. This is a book McCain and Obama should ponder.”
—Thomas Powers, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Man Who Kept the Secrets and Intelligence Wars
"The Devil We Know, Bob Baer has once again peered into the future and has brought back uncomfortable truths that won't satisfy any partisan. But his book does force us to do something that, unfortunately, doesn't come naturally to the chattering classes. Think.”
—James Risen, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of State of War: The Secret History of the CIA and the Bush Administration
“An important text studded with keen insights into a nation about which America remains dangerously misinformed.”
—Kirkus Reviews
“Timely and provocative...adds an important perspective to a crucial international debate.”
—Publishers Weekly
“Challenges conventional wisdom…[a] timely and provocative analysis.”
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About the Author
ROBERT BAER is the author of two New York Times bestsellers: Sleeping with the Devil, about the Saudi royal family and its relationship with the United States; and See No Evil, which recounts Baer’s years as a top CIA operative. See No Evil was the basis for the acclaimed film Syriana, which earned George Clooney an Oscar for his portrayal of Baer. Baer writes regularly for Time.com and has contributed to Vanity Fair, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post. He is considered one of the world’s foremost authorities on the Middle East.
From the Hardcover edition.
Most helpful customer reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Contemporary Middle East Thinking Turned On Its Head!
By John D. Hollingsworth
I started this book while I was in the middle of Ronen Bergman's "Thirty Year Secret War With Iran" and what a contrast between perspectives! If you watched Syriana with George Clooney then you have and idea who Robert Baer is. While Bergman's book gives an excellent Israeli perspective on Iran and its evolution from the Shah thru the mutation of Hezbollah up to now as seen through the eyes of the Israeli intelligence apparatus. Baer's well written book walks you through the mistakes of the past and helps the reader understand a completely different perspective on Middle East affairs.
This book has been adequately analyzed in other reviews so I will not venture down that path, I can only speak as a retire Air Force Fighter Pilot who spent more then enough time prosecuting battle in various Middle Eastern venues to tell you that we as a nation can not financially afford the price of a continued presence in a region where we are not making a difference. As Baer points out in his book; "Saudi Arabia would be over-run by Iranian forces in less then 18 hours" were it not for the presence of the 5th Fleet in the Gulf. Bahrain is an island that use to be under Persian control, the vast majority of the inhabitants are Shia! These and many other factual tidbits spark critical thinking and help a western reader to under stand that the U.S. strategizes on 4 year election cycles and the Iranians/Persians strategize on thousand year epochs.
Robert Baer's analysis of a retaliation by Iran should Israel attack the nuclear sites is very disturbing yet thought provoking! U.S. mainstream media is incapable of covering such possibilities as Silk Worm missiles virtually shutting down all oil traffic, mainstream media is incapable of revealing the financial consequences of a Iranian retaliation in the context of oil pricing i.e. $200 a barrel. Robert Baer has reveled so much that is never openly discussed on these shores. The epilogue contains a series of recommendations that are brilliant......i.e. capture the Pakistan nuclear weapons and let the Iranians deal with the region of Afghanistan and the sad excuse for a country that is Pakistan.
Bergman's book while informative rings with the tone of an Israeli lobbyist and Baer's book screams the need to reform our conventional thinking! There is more to be learned from retired spooks who have the perspective and hindsight to finally offer solutions that are not part of the Langley Company line! This is an excellent book!
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
A New Reality in the Persian Gulf
By Ralph White
Bob Baer's first book, "See No Evil," was about how the Clinton Administration failed a junior CIA operative (himself) when he had organized a home-grown Iraqi coup of Saddam Hussein. Baer attributed that failing of statecraft to the gutting of intel in the Clinton White House. The implicit argument in "The Devil We Know" is that if we'd have listened to him then, we wouldn't have had to devalue our national image by invading and occupying Iraq.
Baer goes on to make the case that our real enemies are the Sunnis. They are mindless killers and their objectives are nothing more than "confusing the enemy." By contrast, the Shia are peace-loving nationalists who have never killed (caveat: since 1988) anyone with a suicide bomb. Baer makes the case that we should ally with the Shia against the Sunnis. Giving hundreds of pages of evidence that all Shia are controlled (or disclipined) by Iran, the prescription of an alliance with the Shia implies an alliance with Iran.
Baer served his country with distinction and continues to serve it as a political analyst. But there are questions that Baer does not answer here. Perhaps he will in a forthcoming book, but they are unanswered here. Doesn't Islam require all believers to 1) attend mosque, 2) read the Koran, 3) pursue jihad. Doesn't "jihad" mean "struggling against" us, even if they are Shia? Doesn't every Muslim have the obligation to either 1) convert us, 2) extract jizya (humiliating tax) from us, or 3) kill us? Forgive me if I'm oversimplifying things, but I don't think the Shia would shy away from violent jihad against the US simply because we'd abandoned the battlefield. Why wouldn't they take it for weakness and fight all the harder against us?
It may be that the US should be more aware of the distinctions between Shia and Sunny and it may be that the Shia are slightly less homicidal, but reaching out to them as allies? Isn't Iran a theocratic regime that is governed by the Koran and the Hadith (the traditions of the Prophet)? To make a case for Iran as an ally, he has to make the case that a nation which calles us "The Great Satan," and vows to wipe Israel of the map should actually not be taken at its word. It seems reasonable to also ask if Bob Baer hasn't caught at least a mild case of what the State Department calls "clientitis." How is it that only Baer alone has seen the light?
Baer's real message is that, having removed Saddam, we've effectively handed over Iraq to Iran. A done deal. A new reality. Now we have to deal with it. And the scary thing, if you believe Baer, and I do, notwithstanding some misgivings, is that not one single senior policy maker in America knows what you will know after you close the last page of this book. Now that's frightening.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Realpolitik Persian Style
By Andrew Schonbek
In The Crisis of Islam, renowned Middle East expert and scholar Bernard Lewis writes, "Unlike revolutionary France and Russia, revolutionary Iran lacks the means, the resources, and the skills to become a major world power and threat".
Robert Baer, not an academician but rather a former CIA operative, takes a very different view in The Devil We Know, writing, "What it comes down to is this: Iran is the most powerful and stable country in the Middle East - a country the United States must either fight in a new thirty-year war or come to terms with".
If the Neocons advising the President in the run up to the Iraq war had placed less emphasis on Lewis' theory and more on Baer's practice, the outcome of events there might have been quite different.
The portrait that Baer paints of Iran flies in the face of conventional wisdom.
He writes, for example, that "Iran is not a totalitarian state run by `Islamofascists' who believe they're in some quixotic war with the West and Western civilization. President Ahmadinejad is not intent on starting World War III; he's a figurehead no more able to take Iran to war than Joseph McCarthy was able to take America to war against Communism. Iran's real leaders are rational, pragmatic, and calculating".
The Iranian goals are those of an imperial superpower. They include the following:
* Dominion over surrounding countries either directly or through proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah;
* A position of dominance in energy markets through control of shipping corridors (strategic pipelines and the Straights of Hormuz) and managing the extraction of its own reserves as well as those of Iraq and other neighboring countries;
* Control of Mecca and Medina, perhaps through a joint administration with Saudi Arabia;
* Recognition, the respect due a superpower, and internal security.
Baer argues that the Iranians are well on the way to achieving these goals, and, again contrary to conventional wisdom, that they do not need nuclear weapons to do so. In fact, one of the books more interesting chapters is entitled "Lethal and Elusive: Why Iran's Weapons and Tactics Make It Unconquerable - Even Without Nukes". In it he describes the military capabilities used by Hezbollah to deliver Israel its first ever military defeat in the Lebanese conflict of 2006. Baer places great emphasis on this writing, "There's a good argument that Iran's modernization of guerilla warfare is a military development as important as the introduction of the machine gun was to World War I or the tank to World War II".
The Iran that is described in The Devil We Know is significantly more dangerous than the caricature that most Americans have espoused. Baer argues that ultimately we will be forced to settle with the mullahs since we surely won't be able to prevail against them.
Sobering, but important material...
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